Correlation and Causation in Construction Claims

Abstract

In construction claims, in order to prevail, contractors must establish entitlement, causation, and quantum. Though all these aspects can be very challenging, proof of causation often is subtle and intangible. There is no well-defined or one-size-fits-all formula for causation proving identified or endorsed by the courts or boards of contract appeals. In some construction claims, correlation analysis is seen as part of causation demonstration. It often faces the pushback or criticism in the context of the saying correlation is not causation. Then what is the difference between correlation and causation? Under what circumstances or conditions can correlation represent causation? This paper will discuss these issues from mathematical and practical perspectives and provide useful guidelines of using correlation analysis to demonstrate causation in construction claims.