A Risk-Based Framework to Improve a Distribution System’s Resilience against Earthquakes

Abstract

Earthquakes and other natural disasters have caused significant damages to power systems, indicating the necessity to enhance power system resilience. This paper proposes a risk-based resilience enhancement framework against earthquakes that considers their stochastic nature. The proposed framework supports the decision-making of distribution system operators (DSOs) for retrofitting substation components and underground cables to enhance distribution system resilience. The framework consists of four phases, namely earthquake modeling, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, and resilience enhancement. An attenuation relationship is used to model the earthquake characteristics. Vulnerability assessment includes the failure probability calculation of substation components and a fault-tree method application to examine the seismic vulnerability of the substation. Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is used to assess the seismic risk, and includes the estimation of repair cost and customer interruption cost due to the damage caused by the earthquake, as well as the power generation cost of the distributed energy resources (DERs) used to meet the demand locally. A modified risk reduction worth (RRW) metric is adopted to determine the optimal retrofitting strategy to enhance resilience. The proposed framework was applied to a real distribution substation to examine the effectiveness of substation component retrofitting for resilience enhancement.