Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Explore the Dynamic Impact of Megaproject Governance on Performance

Abstract

Megaprojects are facing great challenges and traditional project governance theories are gradually showing inadaptability. The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic impact of megaproject governance and project performance using a dynamic approach based on a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM). From the existing governance review, six governance factors for megaprojects were identified: government coordination, government supervision, risk sharing, revenue distribution, relationship maintenance, and cultural development. Then the causal relationships and weights between megaproject governance and performance were established through a questionnaire survey of experts, thus the FCM model was constructed. Finally, the dynamic interactions between megaproject governance factors and performance were investigated through predictive analysis, diagnostic analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The findings indicate that (1) each of the six governance factors are positively correlated with project performance; (2) revenue distribution has the greatest positive impact on the project performance of megaprojects, which is also the fundamental factor for changes in project performance; and (3) the impact of governmental governance on project performance cannot be ignored during the implementation of megaproject management. This study contributes to (1) analyzing the key factors influencing project performance by exploring dynamic interactions between governance factors and performance, and ultimately promoting project success; and (2) providing new perspectives to improve performance and guide governance practices for megaprojects.