Global Ocean Monitoring and Prediction at NOAA Climate Prediction Center: 15 Years of Operations

Abstract

Climate variability on subseasonal to interannual time scales has significant impacts on our economy, society, and Earth’s environment. Predictability for these time scales is largely due to the influence of the slowly varying climate anomalies in the oceans. The importance of the global oceans in governing climate variability demonstrates the need to monitor and forecast the global oceans in addition to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific. To meet this need, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) initiated real-time global ocean monitoring and a monthly briefing in 2007. The monitoring covers observations as well as forecasts for each ocean basin. In this paper, we introduce the monitoring and forecast products. CPC’s efforts bridge the gap between the ocean observing system and the delivery of the analyzed products to the community. We also discuss the challenges involved in ocean monitoring and forecasting, as well as the future directions for these efforts.