Tropical Cyclone Potential Size

Abstract

A model for tropical cyclone (TC) potential size (PS), which is capable of predicting the equilibrium outer radius of a TC solely from environmental parameters, is proposed. The model combines an updated Carnot cycle model with a physical model for the wind profile, which serve as energetic and dynamic constraints, respectively, on the minimum pressure. Physically, the Carnot cycle model defines how much the surface pressure can be dropped energetically, and the wind profile model defines how large the steady-state storm needs to be to yield that pressure drop for a given maximum wind speed. The model yields an intrinsic length scale