Simulating the Chesapeake Bay Breeze: Sensitivities to Water Surface Temperature

Abstract

Simulations of Chesapeake Bay breezes are performed with varying water surface temperature (WST) datasets and formulations for the diurnal cycle of WST to determine whether more accurate depictions of water surface temperature improve prediction of bay breezes. The accuracy of simulations is measured against observed WST, inland wind speed and temperature, and in simulations’ ability to detect bay breezes via a detection algorithm developed for numerical model output. Missing WST data are found to be problematic within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model framework, especially when activating the prognostic equation for skin temperature,