Probabilistic Behavior and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Masonry Walls Considering Slenderness Effect

Abstract

Inherent uncertainties associated with masonry structures result in large scatter in experimentally or analytically predicted behavior. Rigorous investigation of uncertainties in the structural behavior of masonry structures is of paramount importance to lay down the basis for reliable structural design. In this study, the probabilistic behavior of reinforced masonry walls under out-of-plane (OOP) loading was investigated. Uncertainties in material and geometric properties were incorporated in finite-element (FE) models for probabilistic structural analysis. The individual and combined effect of different uncertain input parameters on the overall probabilistic behavior was evaluated. Furthermore, the relative importance of uncertain variables to the load and deformation capacities was assessed using variance-based sensitivity analysis. The model uncertainty in FE-predicted load capacity was quantified to characterize the model error. The results indicate that model uncertainty contributes to the variance in lateral load capacity more than all the other uncertainties in material and geometric properties.