Unraveling the Geography of Intercity Flows of Migrants&#x2019; <i>Hukou</i> Conversion Intentions: A Spatial Econometric Origin-Destination Flow Analysis

Abstract

Using the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) in 2017, this study constructs a network of intercity flows of hukou conversion intentions to analyze the geographical patterns and influencing factors of intercity hukou conversion intentions. A spatial econometric origin–destination flow model (spatial OD model) is employed to examine the effects of origin cities, destination cities, individual-level factors, and network autocorrelation among flows, improving the model performance by introducing the spatial dependence among origins and destinations. It reveals that Beijing and Shanghai act as the national hukou attraction centers, and cities with high hukou attractiveness are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal region and higher administrative levels. The network autocorrelation is embodied in the origin and destination dependence, impacting the unbalanced distribution of hukou conversion intention flows. The intercity flows of hukou conversion intentions are affected by the population sizes and socioeconomic factors of origin and destination cities, together with demographic attributes, social security conditions, and migration features. The unbalanced spatial pattern and the significant network autocorrelation of intercity hukou conversion intentions provide policy implications for China’s hukou system reform.