Development of a Protocol for Engineering Applications of Evidence Theory

Abstract

Recent data trends and analysis have highlighted the need to incorporate more imprecise, ambiguous, and unreliable data into uncertainty analysis traditionally handled by probability theory. However, data fraught with potential error and missing information are not well suited for analysis using probability theory due to high epistemic uncertainty. Evidence theory offers an alternative method of assessing epistemic uncertainty and is well suited for expanded use in engineering applications. Unfortunately, a unified approach to the application of evidence theory is lacking. To address this gap, we developed a protocol for engineering applications of evidence theory. The protocol proposes a logical procedure for defining the frame of discernment, the initial assignment of belief mass, the selection of combination rule, and sensitivity analysis. A literature review of prevailing methods related to the application of evidence theory highlighted concepts and considerations to address. The steps of the protocol were explored and discussed using an example problem including several rule combinations in order to highlight differences in the results and implications of making different analytical decisions. The protocol proposed herein is intended to facilitate engineering applications of evidence theory and to promote more widespread use of the theory in the field of civil engineering.