High-Definition Hurricanes: Improving Forecasts with Storm-Following Nests

Abstract

To forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure changes with fidelity, numerical weather prediction models must be “high definition,” i.e., horizontal grid spacing ≤ 3 km, so that they permit clouds and convection and resolve sharp gradients of momentum and moisture in the eyewall and rainbands. Storm-following nests are computationally efficient at fine resolutions, providing a practical approach to improve TC intensity forecasts. Under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was developed to include telescopic, storm-following nests for a single TC per model integration. Subsequently, HWRF evolved into a state-of-the-art tool for TC predictions around the globe, although its single-storm nesting approach does not adequately simulate TC–TC interactions as they are observed. Basin-scale HWRF (HWRF-B) was developed later with a multistorm nesting approach to improve the simulation of TC–TC interactions by producing high-resolution forecasts for multiple TCs simultaneously. In this study, the multistorm nesting approach in HWRF-B was compared with a single-storm nesting approach using an otherwise identical model configuration. The multistorm approach demonstrated TC intensity forecast improvements, including more realistic TC–TC interactions. Storm-following nests developed in HWRF and HWRF-B will be foundational to NOAA’s next-generation hurricane application in the Unified Forecast System.