Assessing the Forecast Impact of a Geostationary Microwave Sounder Using Regional and Global OSSEs

Abstract

Forecast observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted to assess the potential impact of geostationary microwave (GeoMW) sounder observations on numerical weather prediction forecasts. A regional OSSE is conducted using a tropical cyclone (TC) case that is very similar to Hurricane Harvey (2017), as hurricanes are among the most devastating of weather-related natural disasters, and hurricane intensity continues to pose a significant challenge for numerical weather prediction. A global OSSE is conducted to assess the potential impact of a single GeoMW sounder centered over the continental United States versus two sounders positioned at the current locations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) East and West. It is found that assimilation of GeoMW soundings result in better characterization of the TC environment, especially before and during intensification, which leads to significant improvements in forecasts of TC track and intensity. TC vertical structure (warm core thermal perturbation and horizontal wind distribution) is also substantially improved, as are the surface wind and precipitation extremes. In the global OSSE, assimilation of GeoMW soundings leads to slight improvement globally and significant improvement regionally, with regional impact equal to or greater than nearly all other observation types.