A Multidecadal Analysis of Reservoir Storage Change in Developing Regions

Abstract

The limited amount of shared reservoir monitoring data around the world is insufficient to quantify the dynamic nature of reservoir operation with conventional ground-based methods. With the emergence of the Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT) driven by a multitude of Earth-observing satellites and models, historical observation of reservoir operation spanning 35 years was made using open-source techniques. Trends in reservoir storage change were compared with trends of four critical hydrologic variables (precipitation, runoff, evaporation, and Palmer drought severity index) to understand the potential role of natural drivers in altering reservoir operating pattern. It was found that the reservoirs in Africa were losing active storage at a rate of more than 1% per year of total storage capacity. Smaller reservoirs (with a capacity of less than 0.5 km3) in Southeast Asia were found to experience a sharp gain in storage of 0.5%–1% per year of total storage capacity. Storage change trends of large reservoirs with multiple years of residence time that are designed for strategic water supply needs and drought control were found to be less affected by precipitation trends and influenced more by drought and evaporation trends. Over Africa, most reservoir storage change trends were dictated by evaporation trends, while South Asian reservoirs appear to have their storage change influenced by drought and evaporation trends. Finally, findings suggest that operation of newer reservoirs is more sensitive to long-term hydrological trends and the regulated surface water variability that is controlled by older dams in the upstream.