System Reliability of Mechanically Stabilized Earth Walls Incorporating Complete External Failure Modes

Abstract

This paper presents a study of the system reliability of mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) walls by considering all four external failure modes: excessive eccentricity, lateral sliding, insufficient bearing capacity, and deep-seated instability. The focus of this study is (1) to quantify the correlation between any two failure modes, (2) to statistically examine the dependency between any two failure modes, (3) to estimate the system probability of failure using both Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and formula of union, and (4) to validate the probability bounds of system reliability. Based on MCS, the probabilities of the intersections and unions of various combinations of failure modes are evaluated. The results from this study point to the importance of incorporating all failure modes in a series system of MSE walls and reveal the statistical correlation and independence among different failure modes.