Household Hurricane Evacuation Plan Adaptation in Response to Estimated Travel Delay Provided Prior to Departure

Abstract

Households have access to real-time travel information via different media. However, the effects of predeparture information about travel delays on households’ evacuation plans (evacuate/stay, departure time, route, and destination choices) remain unknown. Household evacuation plan adaptations undoubtedly affect traffic network loading and the effectiveness of traffic-management strategies. Approximately 400 individuals provided responses to choice experiments in a behavioral intention survey allowing investigation of household hurricane evacuation plan adaptations in three travel delay settings. The data show that deciding to stay is the least frequent adaptation, while changing departure time is the most preferred adaptation. Random parameter logit models with observed heterogeneity were estimated to study how households adapt each choice in their evacuation plans in repeated choice settings. Generally, households are less likely to stay when they are informed of longer travel delays. With a 6-h delay, evacuees are more likely to evacuate a day sooner and change routes. With a 1-h delay, evacuees are more likely to evacuate earlier that day and change destinations.