A Nonstationary Uncertainty Model and Bayesian Calibration of Strain-Life Models

Abstract

The Coffin–Manson–Basquin–Haford (CMBH) model is a well-accepted strain-life relationship to model fatigue life as a function of applied strain. In this paper, we propose a nonstationary uncertainty model for the CMBH model, alongside a Bayesian framework for model calibration and estimation of confidence and prediction intervals. Using Inconel 617 coupon test data, we compared our approach to traditional stationary variance models. The proposed uncertainty model successfully captures the fact that the variance of strain amplitude decreases with increasing fatigue life. Additionally, a discussion on how to use the proposed Bayesian framework to compensate for the lack of data by using prior information coming from similar alloys is also presented considering Hastealloy-X and Inconel 617 coupon data.