The Sensitivity Analysis of the Core Lower Head Molten Pool Model Based on Variance Decomposition

Abstract

The lower head molten pool model is an important model for the in-vessel retention (IVR) effectiveness evaluation. It has the characteristics of complex relationship, many input parameters, and large uncertainty. The traditional local sensitivity analysis method has the disadvantages of large amount of calculation and low efficiency when performing sensitivity analysis of complex models. Based on variance decomposition of the global sensitivity analysis method, the sensitivity analysis library (SALib) and IVR analysis code developed by Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) are adopted to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters for four key parameters, such as the lower head wall heat flux ratio. In this paper, the sensitivity coefficient and influence trend of input parameters on key results are obtained, which provides a reference for the optimization of the lower head molten pool model and severe accident mitigation strategies.