Online Discovery and Classification of Operational Regimes From an Ensemble of Time Series Data

Abstract

One of the pertinent problems in decision and control of dynamical systems is to identify the current operational regime of the physical process under consideration. To this end, there has been an upsurge in (data-driven) machine learning methods, such as symbolic time series analysis, hidden Markov modeling, and artificial neural networks, which often rely on some form of supervised learning based on preclassified data to construct the classifier. However, this approach may not be adequate for dynamical systems with a variety of operational regimes and possible anomalous/failure conditions. To address this issue, the technical brief proposes a methodology, built upon the concept of symbolic time series analysis, wherein the classifier learns to discover the patterns so that the algorithms can train themselves online while simultaneously functioning as a classifier. The efficacy of the methodology is demonstrated on time series of: (i) synthetic data from an unforced Van der Pol equation and (ii) pressure oscillation data from an experimental Rijke tube apparatus that emulates the thermoacoustics in real-life combustors where the process dynamics undergoes changes from the stable regime to an unstable regime and vice versa via transition to transient regimes. The underlying algorithms are capable of accurately learning and capturing the various regimes online in a (primarily) unsupervised manner.