Assessment of Urban Flood Risk Factors Using Monte Carlo Analytical Hierarchy Process

Abstract

Sustainability of the built environment is endangered by urban floods, which the frequency and impact of which have increased incrementally due to rapid population growth, unplanned urbanization, and insufficient infrastructures. Targeted sustainability goals can be achieved only with effective and adequate flood risk mitigation measures. This study aims to assess flood risk factors, which can be associated with mitigation measures on the basis of urban flooding. To achieve this goal, flood risk factors were specified by conducting a comprehensive literature review and finessed with one-to-one interview sessions to dissociate the suitable factors to urban floods. There were 35 identified urban flood risk factors assessed by conducting Monte Carlo analytical hierarchy process (MCAHP) since Monte Carlo simulations increase the reliability of the data associated with the unpredictable nature of urban floods. The results show that urban infrastructure, land use, and institutional capacity were the top three main criteria to reduce urban flood risks. The findings can be used by municipality practitioners and disaster management institutions to increase the resilience of cities by adopting the most effective flood mitigation measures.