Improving Resilience of Bus Bunching Holding Strategy through a Rolling Horizon Approach

Abstract

Providing public transportation with quality service is critical to attracting more passengers to the system. However, high-demand routes are prone to the so-called bus bunching—a tendency of buses to group as a consequence of variations in travel times and demands. Bus holding is applied to overcome this effect. In this study, we present a novel method for bus holding in which the control law is based only on the buses’ position using a computationally efficient rolling horizon approach. The method uses similar inputs as linear control approaches while not increasing significantly the computational time. On the other hand, the method overcomes a key weakness of the linear control approach thanks to the explicit constraint handling that always ensures the control action effectiveness. Simulation experiments in a validation case and a model-specific for a bus rapid transit line in Curitiba, Brazil, showed a reduced holding time and improved resilience, delivering more than 20% reduction in delay time accounting for the on-board and station delays.