Waiting Decision Behavior of Commuters for Bus Transits Based on Prospect Theory

Abstract

Aiming to analyze the waiting decision behavior of commuters for bus transits at a bus station of departure during morning peak hours, this paper builds a bus-waiting decision model based on the prospect theory, with consideration of commuters’ total travel costs comprehensively. Taking the total costs of taxi carpooling for individuals as the reference point for travel costs, the travel prospect value models of commuters choosing K1 bus and K2 bus were established, respectively. The results of the numerical example show that the best choice of commuters is closely related to the bus departure interval and the in-vehicle travel time. This paper constructs a two-variable dynamic selection model to explore the decision-making behavior of commuters, with bus departure intervals and in-vehicle travel times as core variables. The research result can help the public transportation management department adjust departure intervals, as well as improve the commuters’ travel satisfaction and the utilization efficiency of the public transportation system.