Travel Patterns in India: Association with Development and Development Pattern

Abstract

This study will estimate the impact of population size, population density, urbanization level and economy-related parameters on the proportion of trips with that have varied trip lengths for work purposes in India, which uses a fractional multinomial logit model. Data from 232 districts of India that have at least one city or town with a population >0.1 million will be used. The analysis shows the positive impact of the district's population size and economy on the proportion of trips longer than 5 km. In addition, there is a positive impact from the overall population density and a negative impact from urban density on the share of long-distance trips. This study shows that as districts in India continue to urbanize and develop economically, the propensity for traveling long distances will probably increase. This will result in an increased dependency on motorized modes of transport that negatively impacts the environment, resource consumption, and human health. This study identifies the need for the adoption of development control regulations and policies to maintain the proportion of long-distance trips at a low level as India continues to urbanize. The findings of this study could be useful to project externalities of the transport sector in future years when the urbanization pattern is considered.