Integrated Probabilistic Delay Analysis Method to Estimate Expected Outcome of Construction Delay Disputes

Abstract

Delays are almost inevitable in construction projects. They can have a devastating effects on the project. Therefore, proper analysis of delays and apportionment of liability is of utmost importance. Parties to construction contracts frequently employ various delay analysis methods to find out their entitlement to extension of time, or liquidated and ascertained damages. More often than not, technical analysis of delays performed by the parties yield distinct results even if the parties employ the same delay analysis method due to the lack of an in depth analysis of legal issues. This analysis is generally left to the courts where judges and experts undertake an interdisciplinary study to apportion the delay attributable to each party. Legal analysis, carried out before embarking on costly court proceedings, has the potential to provide the parties with the likely outcome of their dispute should they decide to take their dispute to the courts. This study proposes the integrated probabilistic delay analysis method (IPDAM), which integrates technical and legal analysis steps of a delay analysis study to estimate the likely outcome of construction delay disputes should the parties decide to take their dispute to the courts. It has been demonstrated in a case study that the IPDAM is practicable even in complicated construction delay cases. The IPDAM is of value to the parties because it provides them with the likely outcome of their dispute with a reasonable degree of precision. Therefore, they can have the opportunity to make informed decisions whether to pursue costly proceedings or not.