Assessing the Hydrologic Response of Key Restoration Components to Everglades Ecosystem

Abstract

The Everglades is a large, complex, and highly managed ecosystem, and its natural hydrologic properties, water quality, soils, flora, and fauna have been significantly altered by the Central and Southern Florida Project. The multi-billion-dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) was authorized in 2000 to restore and protect the Everglades ecosystem. However, the progress in implementing CERP projects has been slow because of their size, complexity, and long-term nature. In 2016, a review of CERP recommended updating it, and in 2018, a mid-course assessment was recommended to incorporate new scientific knowledge. This study began a reassessment of the CERP by evaluating the relative importance of a range of factors, including operations, water storage, removal of barriers to water flow, and seepage control. The purpose was to identify those elements most affecting hydrologic and ecological responses in different regions of the Everglades. The South Florida Water Management Model, a regional hydrologic model, was used as a primary tool to simulate the restoration scenarios over a 36-year period (1965–2000). All scenarios provided substantial improvements to the hydrologic system when compared to the existing conditions. However, restoration benefits of these scenarios were unequally distributed across the Everglades landscape. The scenario that expanded the surface storage in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) to 2.5 billion m3 reduced flood control discharges to the northern estuaries by 66% relative to the existing conditions, which was 8% higher than CERP. However, the scenario with CERP projects significantly increased flows to Everglades National Park. The findings of this study are relevant to Everglades restoration especially in light of recent and emerging science on storage feasibility and climate change.