Case Study on Hydropolitics in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Energy and Water Impacts of Kunar River Development

Abstract

There is growing interest from Afghanistan in using the untapped hydroelectric potential of the Kabul River Basin, on which both Pakistan and Afghanistan are simultaneously upstream and downstream riparians, to meet the energy demands of the country. This study evaluated the hydropower production potential and transboundary flow impacts of water infrastructure development on a major tributary of the Kabul, the Kunar River, under different climate and water management policy scenarios. An existing process-based distributed hydrologic model for the study region was coupled with an optimization-based reservoir operation and routing model developed for this study. Various scenarios representing climatic, water infrastructure development, and management futures were designed, and their relative impacts on energy generation and water availability in each country were evaluated. The results indicate that the reservoir operation objective is the dominant driver of systemwide hydropower and streamflow. Outcomes from potential water management scenarios where either country acts unilaterally are also illustrated. The results shed light on the potential benefits of joint development and operation of water infrastructure in the basin for both Pakistan and Afghanistan.