New Considerations for a Reservoir Capacity Optimizer That Accounts for Failure Risks

Abstract

In this technical note, new considerations and modifications are introduced to a recent design optimization model, developed by the first author, that is able to find the optimal active capacity for a water supply reservoir admitting a predefined minimum number of failure periods, a maximum failure magnitude, or both. It is shown that this model actually finds the best capacity to implement; however, to keep failure indexes within accept limits, the reservoir should also be operated optimally. A simulation-optimization approach is then formulated to find the best capacity even if the reservoir is to be operated by the standard operation policy (SOP), as in typical design procedures that take failure probabilities into account. Applications of both current and modified strategies are carried out and their results compared and commented on.