Ranking of the Sections of East Siberia–Pacific Ocean Main Pipeline by Accident Probability Using Bow-Tie Method and Checklist Support Tool

Abstract

When developing a methodology for assessing the risks of Russian pipelines, it is necessary to take into account the difficult conditions for the passage and functioning of fuel energy facilities. Given the Russian realities, the accident risk weights were modified at the East Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline section. To assess the risks, the bow-tie method was used, as well as a standard checklist questionnaire. The largest pipeline accidents in the world in recent times were analyzed. The main accidents reasons were corrosion and anthropogenic factors. Methods for visualizing accident information with subsequent optimization of risk indicators during operation of trunk pipelines are proposed. It also is proposed to take into account the hydrographic coefficient, which shows the difficulty of laying the pipeline in rough terrain. Future efforts should concentrate on the development of software for assessing the risks of accidents on the ESPO pipeline.