Optimization Procedure for Climate Change Adaptation Investment Planning: Case of Flood Disaster Prevention in Seoul

Abstract

With the growing trend in extreme weather events, establishing an optimal investment plan for infrastructure adaptation has attracted considerable research interest aimed at minimizing future damage in urban areas that have limited resources. Most previous studies focused on optimization problems of infrastructure adaptation for climate change in a single urban district, but multiple key variables of an adaptation plan—investment target, amount, and timing—should be developed simultaneously for interconnected urban districts. Thus, there is a knowledge gap regarding optimization for infrastructure adaptation in interconnected urban districts. This study suggests a model for establishing an infrastructure adaptation plan in urban areas under various climate change scenarios using an optimization method. The proposed model derives the infrastructure investment plan, which includes the key decision variables of investment amount, location, and timing. The model was applied to derive an investment plan for a sewer system covering the 25 administrative districts in Seoul under six future scenarios. The proposed method aims to provide a basis for adaptation planning for urban infrastructure, maximizing benefits from the limited resources.