Predicting Postdisaster Residential Housing Reconstruction Based on Market Resources

Abstract

Multiple billion-dollar disaster events occurred throughout 2017, illustrating the increasing vulnerability of the US residential housing stock to widespread damages associated with disasters. Although the US construction industry plays a critical role in the reconstruction of residential housing after disasters, the industry is constrained by regional availability of labor, material, and capital resources. However, there are few quantitative assessments of why postdisaster reconstruction does not occur consistently across regions. This research introduces a quantitative model to predict regional postdisaster levels of reconstruction, based on the annual average percentage change in the number of residential housing permits issued 2 years before and after a disaster event. Results from an analysis of 204 regions affected by disasters between 2007 and 2013 indicate that predisaster construction labor availability has a statistically significant and positive effect on postdisaster reconstruction of residential housing. Surprisingly, predisaster construction material resources and postdisaster capital availability have minimal effect on reconstruction and are not statistically significant. The study contributes to the body of knowledge of postdisaster reconstruction by using economic theory of market-driven resource supply to determine driving factors that prevent or enable residential housing reconstruction following a disaster.