Electricity System Assessment and Adaptation to Rising Temperatures in a Changing Climate Using Washington Metro Area as a Case Study

Abstract

Increasing temperatures due to global climate change and the urban heat island effect pose a rising threat to the reliability and security of energy systems. To support climate preparedness and resilience planning for the electric sector, this study (1) proposes a framework for assessing the vulnerability of electricity systems in the remainder of this century using the Washington metro area as a case study, (2) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of deploying rooftop photovoltaic (PV) technology, and (3) employs quantitative probabilistic risk analysis in order to enhance adaptation planning and decision making. The results indicate that by the end of the century, the probability of power outages could increase 70-fold in the Washington metro area under the business-as-usual scenario. If the peak load on the electrical grid is cut by three quarters, the probability of outages could rise 20-fold. This reduction is achievable by installing solar panels on building roofs. There is about 136.45 m2 of suitable roof area for solar PV in the Washington metro area, which could add a generation capacity of 13.02 GW to the existing power system. The benefits of using rooftop PV to reduce the peak load on the power grid by 25%, 50%, and 75% are significantly greater than the costs when environmental impacts are considered. The cost-effectiveness of PV strategies may increase in the future because of declining material and installation prices and because of increased social cost of carbon emission.