Past and Projected Freezing/Thawing Indices in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

AbstractFreezing/thawing indices are useful for assessments of climate change, surface and subsurface hydrology, energy balance, moisture balance, carbon exchange, ecosystem diversity and productivity. Current freezing/thawing indices are inadequate to meet these requirements. We use 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models available for 1850?2005, three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) during 2006?2100, and Climatic Research Unit gridded observations for 1901?2014, to assess the performance of freezing/thawing indices derived from CMIP5 models during 1901?2005. We also analyzed past spatial patterns of freezing/thawing indices and projected these over three RCPs. Results show that CMIP5 models can reproduce the spatial pattern of freezing/thawing indices in the Northern Hemisphere but that the thawing index slightly underestimated observations and the freezing index slightly overestimated them. The thawing index agreed slightly better with observations than did the freezing index. There is significant spatial variability in the freezing/thawing indices, ranging from 0° to 10 000°C day. Over the entire Northern Hemisphere, the time series of the area-averaged thawing index derived from CMIP5 output increased significantly at about 1.14°C day yr?1 during 1850?2005, 1.51°C day yr?1 for RCP2.6, 5.32°C day yr?1 for RCP4.5, and 13.85°C day yr?1 for RCP8.5 during 2006?2100. The area-averaged freezing index decreased significantly at ?1.39°C day yr?1 during 1850?2004, ?1.2°C day yr?1 for RCP2.6, ?4.3°C day yr?1 for RCP4.5, and ?9.8°C day yr?1 for RCP8.5 during 2006?2100. The greatest decreases in the freezing index are projected to occur at high latitudes and high altitudes, where the magnitude of the decreasing rate of the freezing index is far greater than that of the increasing rate of the thawing index.