Rhythms of Prediction in South Australian Water Resource Management

Abstract

In the complex institutional and physical infrastructure nexus of South Australia, weather and climate information is highly valued by freshwater managers and users. But different users focus on very different time scales. Recent changes in water rights and technology, driven by the Millennium Drought, enable agricultural users to focus on real-time monitoring and relatively short-term forecasts (3?5 days ahead). A wide range of users make extensive use of the full 7-day weather forecasts and there is awareness of, but not reliance on, seasonal outlooks. These are widely viewed as providing ?background? indications and are seldom directly used in decision-making. While concern about climate change is driving scientific research on downscaling climate impact models for the region, there are different views among decision-makers about the usefulness of these for adaptation. All forms of weather and climate information appear to be best integrated into decision-making when incorporated into sector-specific models and decision-support tools alongside other relevant variables. However, there remains something of a mismatch between scientific aspirations to improve the skill of seasonal and long-term climate forecasting and the temporal rhythms of water-resource decision-making.