Use of Observational Weather Data and Forecasts in Emergency Management: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

Abstract

AbstractMany factors affect the extent to which forecasts inform emergency responses. In a survey based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), 207 U.S. emergency managers (EMs) were asked about 1) their past and intended future use of short-term weather forecasts and recorded weather data, 2) the perceived limitations and 3a) their attitude toward the usefulness of such weather information, 3b) their attitude toward their job and toward uncertainty, 4) perceived social norms, and 5) self-assessed numeracy. Work experience was found to be the best predictor of whether an emergency manager relied on recorded weather data and short-term weather forecasts in the past or intends to do so in the future. Among TPB variables, mainly social expectations and data attitude drive the reliance on recorded weather data and short-term forecasts. The EMs? perception of the weather information?s limitations is related to their perceptions of what their social surroundings think. In sum, this article sheds light on when and why EMs use weather data and forecasts and how training can be improved.