Classification of Extreme Cold Incursions over South America

Abstract

AbstractCold-air incursions across South America present a variety of problems, sometimes by advancing to the Amazon basin and causing agricultural losses related to extreme low-temperature events. The synoptic conditions that produce cold-air incursions are relatively well understood; however, the most affected region depends on the route by which cold air spreads across the continent. Therefore, the classification of extreme cold-air incursions allows a better understanding of the particularities directly related to the aforementioned losses. In this work, similarities and differences among extreme cold surges were found through time series correlation of anomaly temperatures in four selected areas and compositing techniques from ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets, resulting in three distinct patterns: meridional penetration (MP), meridional restriction (MR), and east penetration (EP). The patterns identified here enable a more detailed understanding of the synoptic patterns and forcing mechanisms associated with extreme cold-air incursions and therefore can be used for operational weather forecasting.