Next-Generation Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves to Reduce Errors in Peak Flood Design

Abstract

Precipitation-based intensity–duration–frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to derive design floods for hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, the PREC-IDF design approach can lead to substantial underestimation or overestimation of design floods and associated infrastructure. In this study, next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface, are introduced into the design process to improve hydrologic design. The authors compared peak design flood estimates from the National Resource Conservation Service TR-55 hydrologic model driven by NG-IDF and PREC-IDF curves at 399 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States, all of which had at least 30 years of high-quality records. They found that about 70% of the stations in the western United States showed the potential for underdesign, for which the PREC-IDF curves underestimated peak design floods by as much as 324%. These results demonstrated the need to update the use of PREC-IDF curves to the use of NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated regions.