Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity on Permafrost Soils at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska

Abstract

The Department of Defense is planning more than $552M in military construction on Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) within the next three fiscal years. Although many studies have been conducted on permafrost and climate change, the future of our climate and any impacts on permafrost soils remains uncertain. This research focused on future climate and permafrost predictions for two sites on Eielson AFB. The most recent 2013 International Panel on Climate Change report predicts a 2.2°C to 7.8°C air temperature rise in Arctic regions by the end of the 21st century in the Representative Concentration Pathways, (RCP 4.5) emissions scenario. This study provides an explanation of the impacts of this temperature rise on permafrost soils. The University of Alaska’s Geosphysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) 2.1 Permafrost Model was used to model permafrost conditions from 1947 to 2015 using United States Air Force (USAF) recorded surface weather observations. Two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were then used to project permafrost conditions throughout the 21st century. Results show that permafrost conditions are continually deteriorating with anthropogenic activity and rising temperatures in the Fairbanks, Alaska region.