Improvement of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis Code PASCAL-SP With Regard

Abstract

Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis is expected to be a rational method for structural integrity assessment because it can consider the uncertainties of various influence factors and evaluate the quantitative values such as failure probability of a cracked component as the solution. In the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, a PFM analysis code PASCAL-SP has been developed for structural integrity assessment of piping welds in nuclear power plants (NPP). In the past few decades, a number of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) have been detected in nickel-based alloy welds in the primary piping of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Thus, structural integrity assessments considering PWSCC have become important. In this study, PASCAL-SP was improved considering PWSCC by introducing several analytical functions such as the models for evaluation of crack initiation time, crack growth rate (CGR), and probability of crack detection. By using the improved version of PASCAL-SP, the failure probabilities of pipes with a circumferential crack or an axial crack due to PWSCC were numerically evaluated. Moreover, the influence of leak detection and nondestructive examination (NDE) on failure probabilities was detected. Based on the obtained numerical results, it was concluded that the improved version of PASCAL-SP is useful for evaluating the failure probability of a pipe considering PWSCC.