Scenario Planning Application in US Highway Transportation Industry

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches following the scenario planning methodology can be used to identify driving forces (drivers) that might influence the future of the transportation system over a 30-year period. A case study of the highway transportation industry in the United States is presented. A causal loop diagram and cross-impact matrix were combined to understand the interactions among the drivers identified through a literature review, and then a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to determine how the drivers could be grouped to understand their behaviors in the future. These behaviors were described in a baseline scenario and in six multidriver scenarios representing alternative futures. Scenarios were used to determine key implications for transportation agencies when addressing underlying challenges and potential opportunities which the transportation industry might entertain. The authors showed how agencies may use these scenarios to assess the performance of their plans or assumptions against potentially radical shifts in the future and develop strategies that could make the transportation system resilient to a wide variety of possible future conditions.