Economic Viability of a Natural Gas Refueling Infrastructure for Long-Haul Trucks

Abstract

Low natural gas prices offer an opportunity to expand the use of this fuel in new sectors, such as powering long-haul trucks. The non-return-to-base nature of long-haul trucks requires a large natural gas refueling infrastructure, for which the costs and benefits have not yet been assessed. This paper assesses the spatial distribution, capacity, and economic feasibility of a national natural gas refueling infrastructure for long-haul trucks in the United States. For a small share of natural gas-powered trucks in the total fleet (1%–5%), a national liquefied natural gas (LNG) refueling infrastructure would require from 105 to 193 refueling stations at a capital investment of $263–$483 million (assuming a truck range of 320–960 km or 200–600 mi). The share of LNG trucks has to be greater than 15.2% (assuming the minimum truck range is 320 km or 200 mi), 12.4% (480 km or 300 mi), or 9.5% (960 km or 600 mi), so that the national infrastructure achieves net profits for baseline economic assumptions [$0.05/diesel gal. equivalent (DGE) profit margin, 7% discount rate, and 20 years]. Building a national compressed natural gas (CNG) refueling infrastructure requires more investment because a fast-fill CNG refueling station costs more and has lower capacity compared to an LNG counterpart. However, the CNG refueling infrastructure achieves better economic returns due to a higher assumed profit margin ($0.1/DGE). As the diesel price has the largest effect on the adoption of natural gas trucks, plans to build natural gas refueling infrastructures face significant challenges during times of low diesel prices. A practical strategy is to first target regional highway networks (such as those in California and Texas) to take advantage of high truck activities within regions, favorable market conditions, and supportive government policies.