Dynamic Modeling of Solar Radiation Disturbances Based on a Biomimetic Cloud Shading Model

Abstract

Variation in direct solar radiation is one of the main disturbances that any solar system must handle to maintain efficiency at acceptable levels. As known, solar radiation profiles change due to earth's movements. Even though this change is not manipulable, its behavior is predictable. However, at ground level, direct solar radiation mainly varies due to the effect of clouds, which is a complex phenomenon not easily predictable. In this paper, dynamic solar radiation time series in a two-dimensional (2D) spatial domain are obtained using a biomimetic cloud-shading model. The model is tuned and compared against available measurement time series. The procedure uses an objective function based on statistical indexes that allow extracting the most important characteristics of an actual set of curves. Then, a multi-objective optimization algorithm finds the tuning parameters of the model that better fit data. The results showed that it is possible to obtain responses similar to real direct solar radiation transients using the biomimetic model, which is useful for other studies such as testing control strategies in solar thermal plants.