Development of a Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Quantification Tool

Abstract

Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute (SNERDI) has been studying seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plant for a long time, and completed seismic margin analysis for several plants. After Fukushima accident, seismic risk has drawn an increasing attention worldwide, and the regulatory body in China has also required the utilities to conduct a detailed analysis for seismic risk. So, we turned our focus on a more intensive study of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA/PRA) for nuclear power plant in recent years. Since quantification of seismic risk is a key part in Seismic PSA, lots of efforts have been devoted to its research by SNERDI. The quantification tool is the main product of this research, and will be discussed in detail in this paper. First, a brief introduction to Seismic PSA quantification methodology is presented in this paper, including fragility analysis on system or plant level, convolution of seismic hazard curves and fragility curves, and uncertainty analysis as well. To derive more accurate quantification results, the binary decision diagram (BDD) algorithm was introduced into the quantification process, which effectively reduces the deficiency of the conventional method on coping with large probability events and negated logic. Finally, this paper introduced the development of the seismic PSA quantification tool based on the algorithms discussed in this paper. Tests and application have been made for this software based on a specific nuclear power plant seismic PSA model.