Using Structural Analysis to Identify Key Factors in the Future Development of the City of Niš

Abstract

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the development of the City of Niš, which is suffering from demographic, spatial, and functional stagnation. Analyzing the past and present trends and changes, with the help of structural analysis and cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) software, the relationship between these factors has been established. They have been then classified according to their impact and dependence. Considering their ranking, the authors have identified the key factors that should be taken into account when stimulating possible future development. The results of the analysis indicate that the political and economic factors have been the most dominant in the development of the City of Niš and that their influence will continue in the future. Demographic trends and social factors are seen as consequences of the actions of other factors. Better quality of urban transformations can be achieved through a planning process that will protect the public interest and not the interest of private investors. These methods of analysis can enable a better understanding of interrelated processes of urban development, the creation of an information base for exploring new policies, and improving the efficiency of long-term planning.