Probabilistic Power and Mass Flow Analysis for Integrated Electricity and Heating Networks

Abstract

The wide application of combined heat and power (CHP) units increases the interaction between electricity and heating networks and the interest in combined analysis of the integrated electricity and heating networks (IEHNs). However, most of the existing power and mass flow (PMF) analysis methods for IEHNs are deterministic in nature, which cannot address the uncertainties and their effects on the operation of IEHNs. Therefore, the well-known concept of probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis of an electricity network is extended to IEHNs in this paper. A probabilistic power and mass flow (PPMF) problem of IEHNs considering various uncertainties and correlations in wind speeds, electricity loads, and heat loads under both grid-connected mode and island mode is formulated at first. A probabilistic method based on the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique and Nataf transformation is then developed to solve the PPMF problem. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by a sample IEHN composed of a 33-bus distribution system and a 27-node heating network.