Behavior Probability Model of Interchange Vehicle Diverging

Abstract

Choice-making in diverging in an interchange is affected by multiple external factors. Along with an analysis of the characteristics of drivers’ choice-making in expressway interchanges, this study settles many other fundamental variables, including the selection tree, utility function, speed of vehicles on the main line, accelerated speed, hourly traffic volume of the ramp, time headway in the deceleration lane, and type of vehicle, etc. The two-level nested-logit probability model for drivers accepting ramp diverging and drivers’ diverging choice behaviors modes is established. Based on the radar tracking data of part of diverging areas of interchanges in the Guanghe expressway, the model parameters are estimated by the phased estimation method. According to t-test result, the influence degree of the characteristic variables is judged and the model is optimized. Results suggest that the choice behaviors of diverging at interchange is affected by multiple factors comprehensively, the two-layer nested logit probability model is featured by a higher prediction accuracy.