Flood Risk Assessment, Future Trend Modeling, and Risk Communication: A Review of Ongoing Research

Abstract

Flooding is one of the most devastating and deadly natural disasters. Every year, millions of people are affected by flooding worldwide, with massive economic losses that average around $5 billion annually. Over the years, the frequency of floods and resulting economic losses have increased considerably around the world. This trend is projected to continue in the coming years due to factors such as population growth, increasing urbanization, infrastructure decay, and the potential impact of climate change. In recent years, there have been attempts by researchers to incorporate these factors in flood risk modeling. However, several challenges still exist. This paper aims to review current approaches to modeling the potential impact of climate change, population growth, increasing urbanization, and infrastructure decay on flood risk with the goal of identifying future research needs. We also examine the current approach to flood risk communication and public risk perception with the aim of identifying the challenges to effective risk communication. Issues identified for future research include uncertainty propagation, decoupling changes in flood patterns caused by climate change and those caused by other factors such as population and economic growth, consideration of infrastructure decay in future flood risk modeling, and consideration of the intangible benefits of risk mitigation.