Quantitative Framework to Assess Resilience and Risk at the Country Level

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative method to assess the resilience and the resilience-based risk at the country level. The approach is inspired by the classical risk analysis, in which risk is a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In the proposed analysis, resilience-based risk is a function of resilience, hazard, and exposure. In the new formula, the resilience parameter is evaluated using the data provided by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). HFA scores and ranks countries based on a number of equally weighted indicators. To use those indicators in the resilience assessment, the contribution of each indicator toward resilience must be determined. To do that, three methods to weight and combine the different HFA indicators are proposed. The first two methods are based on the dependence tree analysis (DTA), while the third method is based on a geometrical combination of the indicators using spider plots. The proposed methodology has been applied to a case study composed of 37 countries for which both the resilience (R) and the resilience-based risk (RBR) indexes have been determined.