Planning for Natural Hazards: Robust Approach for High-Speed Rail Infrastructure

Abstract

High-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure is often built in areas prone to multiple hazards. In the planning stage, large areas and substantially different configurations can be considered, but appraising the solutions is a complex process. The value of each solution is affected by its layout, investment required, and performance under ordinary and extreme conditions. This paper focuses on the configuration of a HSR’s physical infrastructure and its relationship to planning decisions. A scenario-based robust approach is proposed to incorporate the effects of natural hazards in HSR planning. Applications to Portugal’s Lisbon–Oporto HSR planning are discussed for two earthquake scenarios and one rainfall scenario. Considering natural hazards in the analysis was found to result in optimized solutions less affected by extreme events, even if this implies greater construction costs and trade-offs regarding the connection of intermediate cities. The applications illustrate how to derive a set of solutions based on different judgments of robustness that can be used to support informed decision making. The approach is not case-specific and can be applied to other real-world problems.