Modeling the Relationship between Natural Disasters and Crime in the United States

Abstract

This research explores the relationship between disaster and crime in the continental United States to investigate the question of whether disasters of different magnitudes differentially affect crime rates. Three sociological theories inform the analyses. First, sociology of disaster researchers, using the therapeutic community hypothesis, have long asserted that disasters reduce criminal activity both during and after the event. Second, criminologists using social disorganization theory assert that disaster may increase the likelihood and occurrence of crime. Third, researchers using routine activity theory suggest that disaster may increase or decrease criminal activity, depending on how a disaster restructures formal and informal mechanisms of social control and criminal opportunity. The research utilizes geographic and longitudinal analyses of 14 years of county-level data on sociodemographic predictors of crime, property and violent crime rates, and disaster impacts. Using hierarchical linear modeling, findings indicate that higher crime rates are associated with larger disaster magnitudes. This research and results represent the first county-level geographic and longitudinal analysis of disaster and crime for the continental United States.