Potential Impacts of Changes in Climate on Turbidity in New York City’s Ashokan Reservoir

Abstract

This paper applies an approach for determining water resources vulnerability caused by climate change to the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS). The results provide potential responses of the system to changes in climate and guidance that can inform short-term and long-term planning decisions. This research includes models of the hydrology and operations of the NYCWSS and includes a statistical model of turbidity loading and a zero-dimentional model of turbidity concentration in the Ashokan Reservoir. Using a stochastic weather generator, incremental changes are made to precipitation and temperature and these are used to drive a coupled hydrology-simulation model. The results illustrate the sensitivity of the system, and in particular Ashokan Reservoir turbidity, to changes in climate.