Combining Short-Term and Long-Term Reservoir Operation Using Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control

Abstract

Model predictive control (MPC) can be employed for optimal operation of adjustable hydraulic structures. MPC selects the control to be applied to the system by solving an optimization problem over a finite horizon in real-time. The horizon finiteness is both the reason for MPC’s success and its main limitation. MPC has in fact been successfully employed for short-term reservoir management. Short-term reservoir management deals effectively with fast processes, such as flood, but it is not capable of looking sufficiently ahead to handle long-term issues, such as drought. This study proposes an infinite horizon MPC solution that deals with both short and long-term objectives, tailored for reservoir management. In the proposed solution, the control signal is structured by the use of basis functions. Basis functions reduce the optimization argument to a small number of variables, making the control problem solvable in a reasonable time. The solution is tested for the operational management of Manantali reservoir, in the Senegal River. The long-term horizon offered by infinite horizon MPC is necessary to deal with the strongly seasonal climate of the region for both flood and drought prevention.