Construction Risk Management of Irrigation Dams

Abstract

The timely completion of complex dam-construction projects is a challenging proposition, both in developing and developed countries. Delays are frequent in such projects and impose costly burdens on regional and national economies. One of the main reasons for the delay in those projects is caused by ignoring the uncertainty inherent in the completion of the tasks that arise in dam construction. Project managers often use the critical path method to schedule those activities. A key limitation of this method is that the completion times for activities near the critical path are frequently assessed inaccurately. This paper evaluates the uncertainty of scheduling the tasks associated with the construction of dams, and relies on the Gelal earthfill dam and Khersan 3 concrete dam projects for illustration purposes. An evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation and risk management indices is herein proposed. The results of this study are intended to assist project managers and decision-makers in scheduling of construction activities and minimizing associated costs. Results indicate that the probabilities of completing the aforementioned earth and concrete dams on schedule are 65 and 50%, respectively. Moreover, the results demonstrate the importance that the completion times of individual project activities has on overall timely project completion.